Daniel Groeschel

by Dan Groeschel

 

The NFL Draft Combine wrapped up last week. With both the draft and free agency upcoming, it’s expected to see the rumor mill swirling around at full-speed. This year was no different. Here are the five most impactful tidbits for the upcoming fantasy season that we can take away from last week’s combine.

 

 

1. Kyler Murray will be the top overall pick in the draft

 

Several NFL front office executives have anonymously said they believe Kyler Murray will be the top overall pick next month. Last October, as Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech team was preparing to play Murray’s Oklahoma Sooners, Kingsbury said he would draft Murray with the first pick in the draft.

Whether he meant that in jest to get in the head of his opponent or he was 100% serious, he now is the head coach of the team currently on the clock. With Kyler Murray measuring in a tick above 5-foot-10, all the “concerns” have been squashed.

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Scouts and analysts alike are extremely fond of Murray as we roll on towards the draft. Two of the biggest checkmarks in his favor are his baseball background and his size. As we are not being allowed to forget, Russell Wilson and 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes both had impressive baseball backgrounds; Kyler Murray just turned down being a first round pick in last year’s MLB draft. As for his size, Murray checked in at 5-foot-10 1/8 tall, 207 pounds. At the 2012 draft combine, Russell Wilson checked in at 5-foot-10 5/8 tall, 204 pounds.

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In his rookie year, Wilson threw for 3,118 yards and 26 TDs on a run-centric team (he added almost 500 yards and 4 TDs with his feet). Those may be lofty numbers for a rookie quarterback on a re-loading offense, but if Murray goes first to Arizona, look for them to use his arm and legs to move the ball early and often.

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There is just one thing that might hinder the plan…

 

2. Josh Rosen is the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, “right now”

 

During his press availability in Indy, Cardinals GM Steve Keim was being questioned about the Cardinals taking Kyler Murray at #1. Flashback all the way to last year when the Cardinals used the tenth overall pick to select Josh Rosen to be the franchise quarterback. Keim commented on Rosen being the starting quarterback by saying, “Yeah. He is for right now, for sure.”

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That not-so-ringing endorsement has resulted in several teams reportedly contacting the Cardinals to gauge the availability of the second-year quarterback who is coming off a not-so-stellar rookie campaign. Last year he completed just 55% of his passes for 2,278 yards, with 11 TDs and 14 INTs on the below-average Cardinals offense.

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I was high on Rosen’s prospects last year, especially landing on an offense with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and also adding Christian Kirk. Last year, DJ checked himself into witness protection, Fitz surpassed the apex and his now over the hill, and Kirk only began to emerge as the season was winding down. With all of those happening at the same time, it’s no wonder a rookie quarterback with a rookie offensive coordinator (Byron Leftwich) and a defensive-minded rookie head coach (Steve Wilks) were not a match made in heaven.

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What’s left to be seen is Kingsbury is going to accept the inheritance of Rosen or go get his own quarterback. With the whispers all saying Kyler Murray will be on the Cards next year, Rosen will likely be shipped away. The only question is where he will go. Smart money has the Redskins as the favorites to land Rosen, which may be a strong match. Jay Gruden is offensive-minded and, assuming Alex Smith can’t/doesn’t return immediately if at all, the competition for the starting gig won’t be too fierce if he can show growth and promise during camp and preseason, as he would have to edge out Colt McCoy and newly-acquired veteran Case Keenum. Other potential landing spots for Rosen are the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos, and Miami Dolphins.

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Until we know where he lands, he might have one of the more volatile forecasts for the upcoming season. Stay tuned for further updates.

 

3. In a crowded backfield, Marlon Mack is the Indianapolis RB to own

 

Colts head coach Frank Reich told the media during his availability that he viewed Mack as a “workhorse” back. Throw in GM Chris Ballard saying Mack is “the guy,” it’s safe to presume we’ll see more Marlon Mack next year.

Last year at this time, we were wondering if Mack would be this generations Fred Taylor: full of promise and prone to missing games due to injury. We also weren’t sure how the usage would shake out, with rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins also in the mix and Frank Gore having just departed for Miami.

In the 12 games he played, Mack was given the first crack and the bulk of the work and played well with the opportunity. He racked up 908 yards on the ground, averaged 4.7 per tote, and found pay dirt nine times. He was less effective through the air, hauling in just 17 passes for 103 yards and 1 TD for the year.

Add Andrew Luck’s health and a full year under the belts of starting o-linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith and it’s easy to see the Colts ground game taking a leap forward. If the coach and GM are sold on one guy being THE guy, it will cause less indigestion on draft day if he is drafted as one of your top running backs.

 

4. Expect a decreased workload for Todd Gurley in 2019

 

This one might be more of a “reading too far into what was not said” situation, but it’s hard to imagine the Rams replicating his workload from 2018. Last year he had 315 touches for 1,631 yards of offense and 21 TDs, all in just 14 games. Down the stretch the Rams gave him rest and sat him in Weeks 16 and 17, thanks in part to having sewn up the division and a first round bye.

In Gurley’s absence, mid-season acquisition C.J. Anderson played well enough to make the case for extended usage in 2019. Anderson is an effective runner and above-average receiver, making him an any down back.

If we view Gurley as a bell cow back last year, it’s easy to imagine Anderson’s success will warrant him getting potentially 25-30% of the running back touches next season. However, Gurley will still be the guy in the red zone.

In short, don’t slide Gurley down your draft board too much, he’ll still be worth the high pick you use to take him, assuming he can keep his arthritic knee in control.

 

5. The rookie pass catcher to draft is D.K. Metcalf

 

Metcalf entered the combine as the top WR prospect according to several scouting websites. He left the combine as the clear #1 receiver in this class.

The 6-3, 228-pound WR from Ole Miss showcased his straight-line speed with a 4.33 40-yard dash time and his strength, pushing out 27 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. Despite his low body fat percentage and slow 3-cone and shuttle-drill times, Metcalf is likely going to go in the top half of round 1.

Which leads us to this inevitable discussion point: How can you say he is the best rookie pass catcher to draft without knowing what team he will be on? It’s elementary, my dear Watson. As nice as the top TEs are in this class, rookies at the position rarely produce fantasy-starter numbers (Evan Engram in 2017 and Rob Gronkowski in 2010 are the last two), meaning we focus on the wideouts. While the class seems to have a relatively deep second tier of guys, Metcalf stands alone as the top tier. And when a team spends a high pick on a game-changing wide receiver, you can expect the coaches and quarterback to funnel the ball to him.

While he may be the top rookie pass catcher drafted during your fantasy draft, certainly don’t Sharpie him onto your draft board just yet. His draft day value will weigh heavily on where he goes, so be mindful of his destination.

 

 

While we felt the above-listed takeaways were the biggest, there is no shortage of drama surrounding dozens of players and teams as we approach the heat of the offseason. With free agency rapidly approaching and the draft just about a month-and-a-half away, fantasy football rankings are about to prepare for a wild series of edits to account for all the new signings and trades that are coming.

Be sure to check back as the 2019 NFL and fantasy season begin to come into focus.